Adapting to Extreme
Extreme weather appears to have become “normal”. Actually, maybe the last 50 years (1960-
2010) may have been “abnormal” when you look at long-term climate records. What is
considered extreme weather today was more normal several hundred years ago. What should we
expect and how can we adapt in the future? Yearly average moisture for Northern Ohio has
been 32-36 inches with 42-50 inches in Southern Ohio. The last four years have been among the
top ten wettest on record and Northern Ohio averaged 50 inches (excluding Lake Erie affected
counties), possibly going to 60 inches. Northern Ohio weather today is more like Southern
Indiana weather 30 years ago.
Extreme weather events will change your future farming operation. During wet springs, farmers
use large equipment and additional hired help to plant in a shorter time period. Growing winter
cover crops with evapotranspiration may dry the soil quicker. Controlled traffic and cover crops
also promote firmer soils for timely planting. Research on autosteer and self- propelled robots
will allow equipment to get smaller. Smaller lighter equipment operated by robots decreases the
weight and compaction factor and operate 24 hours per day. Soon (5-10 years); planting,
spraying and harvesting operations may be vastly different than it is today. It is predicted that
optimal spring planting will be 5-10 days shorter and harvesting time 5-10 days shorter, but
overall, the growing season will be longer. However, average freezing dates may not change
much. Timely planting will be critical.
With a longer growing season expected, farmers may plant earlier and use longer season crops
hybrids that they harvest later. However, longer crop maturities do not necessarily produce
higher yields or higher profits. It depends on rainfall timing (especially during pollination) and
growing conditions. Short season crop varieties may produce as much grain as longer growing
crop varieties with less moisture. Planting a short season variety, getting a premium for early
harvest, cutting drying costs and adding a cover crop to increase carbon in the soil may be more
profitable and environmentally sound.
Increased crop residues decrease soil temperatures, beneficial in a drought or during a hot
summer. In a hot or dry summer, soil temperatures may be 20-30 degrees cooler under no-till
and cover crops compared to conventional tilled soils, conserving moisture lost to evaporation.
In Illinois, soil temperatures on conventionally tilled soil reached 140F during a drought in 2014,
which is high enough to kill soil bacteria. These farmers were advised to inoculate their soybean
fields to reestablish beneficial Rhizobia bacteria for N production. At 100F soil temperature,
15% of moisture is used for growth and 85% moisture is lost through evaporation and
transpiration. At 70F, 100% moisture is used for plant growth. For corn production, 75F requires
1 inch water/week, at 85F – 2 inch water/week, and at 95F – 4 inch water/week. Water
requirements double for every 10F increase in soil temperature (Elwynn Taylor, 2012).
Since water and carbon dioxide are the most limiting nutrients for crop yields, no-till farming
and adding cover crops to increase organic matter conserves moisture and adds soil carbon.
With more frequent rains, expect delayed fertilizer applications and with more intense rain
events expect more soil erosion. Expect increased water quality issues due to loss of nitrate and
phosphorus fertilizer, increased sediment losses, runoff from manure application; followed by
warmer summers which promote harmful algal blooms. The best solution to these problems is to
plant cover crops to decrease soil erosion, improve soil structure, increase water infiltration, and
higher water holding capacity, and live roots to tie up soluble soil nutrients.
Extreme weather will change insect, weeds, diseases, and soil microbe populations. Higher
humidity may increase pathogens, insects, and other pests. Warmer winters affects grains storage
with increased insects, molds and allergens expected to be major future problems due to
increased temperatures and humidity. Increased temperatures and higher humidity may change
the efficiency and persistence of herbicides (volatility) and fungicides longevity and
effectiveness. Expect grain to have higher energy content due to a longer growing season but
lower protein content, which will affect livestock feeding. Maryland farmers in the Chesapeake
Bay region using cover crops for the past 10-15 years say they can plant 7-10 earlier due to
firmer soils that allow the soil to dry out rather than planting in mud. Maybe that is the future of
Ohio farming.