Crop Development and Yield

 

Farmers in the Eastern Midwest are wet while farmers in the Western half of the Midwest are struggling with heat and drought. After 5 years of hot dry summers, especially in July and August; farmers in the Eastern half of the country are getting a cool summer and plenty of rain. Crop scouts are now touring the country to determine corn and soybean yields. The eastern half has to scout a flooded area with record rainfall amounts, downed corn, and standing water from central Illinois into eastern Ohio. The western half scouts crops that have had very little moisture for most of the summer. The result is thinner cobs, lighter ears, and some yellow corn from denitrification (lack of N) in the east.

The USDA national estimate for corn yield is 180.7 bushels average per acre across the nation. That is down 2.3 bushel from July and 5.8 bushel from last year’s record. About 61% of the corn is rated good to excellent, down 11 points from last year. Another 14% is rated poor to very poor. The crop scouting may not tell the whole story. Drowned roots, denitrification (yellow corn), and down corn (lodged or leaning due to wet weather and wind), may still have a cob with kernels; but the depth, size, and weight may be severely impacted. The result: Annual scouting reports may result in an upper limit and may be revised down later.

Pro farmer scouts seven states: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota which account for roughly 70% of U.S. corn and soybean production. Ohio is right at the average (62%) while Nebraska is 47%, Illinois 61%, Minnesota 70%, and Indiana 68% good-excellent (Rating estimated August 9th).

Pro farmer scout over 2,000 fields and has been conducted the same way since the 1990’s. Comparisons can be made between the years. For corn, they lay a 30-foot rope across 2 rows, count every ear and then pull the 5th, 8th, and 11th ears to measure grain length and count kernels around. Ear count times grain length times kernel rows, divided by the measured row width, produces the field's estimated yield.

For soybeans, scouts measure a 3-foot plot, count plants, then count every pod a quarter-inch or larger on three randomly selected plants and convert to pods in a 3-foot by 3-foot square. Fields are not pre-selected; scouts walk 35 paces off the road before the first sample, which removes the ability to choose the good part of the field.

 

Unfortunately, Ohio has some of the poorest crops. The cool wet spring delayed corn planting for roughly 70% of the corn in Northwest Ohio. Corn development is way behind and the cool temperatures are making corn develop slower.

Over the Midwest, soybeans are rated 62% good-to-excellent which is 6% lower than last year. Iowa has the best rated soybeans at 78% good-to-excellent while South Dakota rates their soybeans good-to excellent at 45%. Soybeans were estimated at 62% good-to-excellent, down a point on the week and 6 points below last year. Ohio has a low soybean rating at 49% and that was estimated before the rain and flooding occurred.

For USDA yield estimates, the national corn yield is estimated at 180.7 bu. per acre on 88.6 million harvested acres for a 16.013-billion-bu. crop, and soybeans at 52.7 bu. per acre for 4.519 billion bushel; the largest U.S. soybean crop on record.

Corn estimated yields are the most suspect and liable to change. yields First, corn development is not far enough along to be safe. Illinois was 10% dented, Indiana 14%, Ohio just 7%. A crop that is still filling is a crop whose final kernel weight is undetermined. There is a strong argument that the crop tours will underestimate crop damage. Second, Ohio soybeans at 49% good-to-excellent were already the weakest in the seven-state group before the water arrived.

The biggest issue in grain markets currently is the widespread thunderstorms and rain deposited this past week over Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and further east. Amounts vary but Indian has record flooding and a lot of farmland has had 3-5-7 inches of rain or more in the month of August. Parts of eastern Indiana and southeastern Ohio picked up more than 11 inches over the past week.

The rain fell on soils that were already saturated, so almost all of it ran off or ponded. Corn and soybeans are standing in saturated fields with lodged and downed corn being reported due to high winds. Ponded corn at dough-to-early-dent loses root function first and kernel fill second; beans setting pods in saturated ground abort the youngest pods. (Adapted and revised from Jim Wiesemeyer report).