Future Weather Outlook

Fall harvest is starting to wind down. For most farmers, the dry August-September weather hurt yields. I have heard corn yields from 120-180 bushels and 30-60 bushels soybeans where moisture was limiting most of the summer. A few farmers tell me they got good rains until August and are getting 150-220 bushels corn with 50-75 bushels soybeans. One farmer had excellent yields, with good rain but also irrigation, so his yields were 250-270 on corn and around 70+ bushel on soybeans. Generally, rain makes grain if it comes in moderation. 

For most of Ohio, especially Southeast Ohio, this was one of the worst droughts in many years. With improved genetics, crops have adapted to drier weather conditions, so crop yields generally are a little higher. However, with high fertilizer prices and low crop prices, even slightly lower yields are devastating to crop profits. In the agriculture world, ag is going through at least a recession if not a depression. 

One thing farmers always talk about is the future and weather expectations. August, September, and October have been warmer and sunnier than normal with little rain. Soil moisture levels are very low. November is expected to stay warm and still dry. November generally is chilly and cloudy but not this year. However, the weather may start to change starting in December. December could be much colder in the Northern part of the USA, including parts of the Great Lakes region where we live. Most predictions call for much colder weather the further North you live. 

NOAA outlooks call for a weak, short La Nina to develop which generally means cooler or colder temperature in the Great Lakes but also more moisture and wetter than average conditions this winter. There is about a 60% chance of this weak, short lasting La Nina weather event to occur. Farmers will need to regenerate soil moisture before spring, so this could potentially reduce, possibly even break the current drought cycle in a large part of Ohio, at least temporarily. However, at least 25% of the USA is in at least a moderate drought, especially in the Southern areas which are expected to stay dry. A large part of the USA may not get hardly any drought relief even if the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Regions gets some relief. So, for the Midwestern states like Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky; we may see wetter than normal conditions this winter while the rest of the country stays drier than normal. 

Usually, around this time of year, farmers start ordering seed for next year. Keeping up on the weather is an important part of planning for future crops. The bad news is that a weak, short La Nina which generally brings moisture to our area may shift again back to a El Nino weather pattern in early to mid-spring. That could potentially mean less moisture going into the 2025 growing season. 

Looking to the summer of 2025, it becomes more difficult to predict. Predictions are based on long-term weather trends. With a short, weak La Nina potentially developing, good moisture conditions could be over by planting time. Weak La Nina’s are generally replaced by weak El Nino weather events. In the Great Lakes region (Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky), El Nino’s usually result in hotter, drier weather in the summer. It’s possible we may need all the moisture gained this winter to sustain our crops into the summer. 

While it becomes much harder to predict weather forecasts long term, this current weather pattern does line up with a 90-year long-term weather cycle. This is very similar to the droughts that occurred in the 1930’s which lasted several years. Our sun solar activity is vey high and expected to peak in the 2024-2025-year cycle. Northern lights and increased solar activity have a great impact and determine most of our current weather events. With weaker La Ninas expected, which typically bring more moisture to our region; we may have hotter and drier weather as we transition back to a weak El Nino next summer. 

If there is any good news, this 90-year weather cycle has probably peaked and we should be headed towards more “normal” sun activity and weather. However, we still have to get by another 2-3 years yet of expected drier than normal weather. Best advice for planting crops if dry weather is expected: kill cover crops early, plant crops early, and conserve moisture. Let’s hope we can some drought relief. Weather is hard to predict and it is usually not constant, even in certain regions. Someone always gets a little too much or not enough rain each year. Hopefully, next year is better!