Late Season Weather Concerns
Migrating birds are already flocking together and some bird migration from the North has already started. The cicadas have been singing for several weeks. Are we due for an early frost? The first week of September has cold front from the north moving in and it is possible a few low-lying areas may see some light frost. Here is some data for first frosts in Ohio.
Frost dates are based on 1991–2020 climate data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This site uses a 30% probability threshold, meaning there is a 3 in 10 chance frost will occur before or after the given date. Microclimates vary, so this is a flexible guide, not a guarantee. For example, towns and cities tend to be 5-10°F warmer than farm land and surrounding areas. Lake Erie and large bodies of water tend to moderate temperatures. That means they are slower to warm up in the spring and slower to cool down in the fall. Here are some frost dates for various locations in Ohio.
At the Toledo airport (west of a big city and close to Lake Erie), the last killing frost in the spring is April 27th and first killing frost in the fall is October 22 for 177 frost-free days. A killing frost occurs when it is cold enough to end the growing season. A kill frost terminates most vegetation, especially leaves and buds. This occurs when temperatures drop below 28°F but the exact temperature may vary depending on the plant type.
For Findlay Ohio, the dates are April 26th in the spring, and October 17 in the fall for 173 frost-free days. For Columbus Ohio, April 27 in the spring and October 20th in the fall for 175 days. And for Cincinnati Ohio, April 23rd and October 20th for 179 days. Elevation effects temperatures with lower lying areas freezing quicker. The numbers may seem a little high and optimistic for farmers because these numbers are taken for towns and large cities.
As far as dry weather, Ohio is not considered in a drought, however; about 22% of the state is considered abnormally dry. A large part of Northwestern Ohio is abnormally dry as well as an area Northwest of Columbus and parts of Southwest and Southern Ohio. Dry weather in August in Ohio impacts yields, especially on soybeans and corn. Some areas only got 15% of normal August precipitation. A large part of Ohio started the spring with cold wet conditions followed by a hot June. Corn yields get hurt the most with dry hot weather during pollination. Soybeans yields get hurt similarly with hot weather during blossoming and pod formation.
For Ohio corn, a dry August reduces kernel size and weight and usually results in more tip die back with more unfilled kernels. Dry August conditions limit grain fill and results in lower test weights. Corn silage harvesting has started and low soil moisture reduces soil compaction. For those areas that got a rain, nitrate toxicity may be a problem on corn silage if harvested too quickly after a rain.
On soybeans, dry weather during R4 to R6 pod fill results in flower and pod abortion. Expect less seeds and smaller seeds. Some research shows that moisture stress during pod fill may reduce yields as much as 40-45%. Expect smaller seeds, more green seed, tougher stems and possibly pod shattering as possible harvest challenges.
Double crop soybeans will be severely challenged this year. Wheat harvest was slow so planting was slower and growing conditions were not ideal. There a few good fields but not many. Slow growing conditions and a lack of rain usually hurts double crop soybean yields.
Finally, on hay crops, a wet spring resulted in a late first cutting harvest and poor quality. Then hot dry conditions in June hurt the second and third cutting yields. Across Ohio, the drought of 2024 hurt many hay fields and conditions in 2025 have not been ideal. Some areas of Ohio got rain and have had good hay crops but many areas have not been so lucky.
With lower crop prices, most crop farmers are struggling. On the brighter side, livestock farmers especially beef and milk prices are higher, so livestock farmers are doing better. Lower grain prices help most livestock farmers. While the bird flu impacted many poultry producers including egg layers and turkey farms, most of those producers were insured by the government so most of those farms are still in business. Some are even thriving, especially if they did not get the bird flu. Farming is a tough business but we all have to eat.