Upcoming Weather & Screwworm

After a week of relatively good weather, farmers have mostly finished planting. Crops are starting to grow with the warmer weather but crops are quite variable. Having spent some time out West in the states of eastern Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and even Texas; overall the crops look good. That is until you get about an hour west of Fort Wayne and into Northwestern Ohio along US Route 30; then unfortunately, the ground is soggy and crops are still struggling to emerge. Eastern Indiana, and Northwest Ohio had some good crops but many fields just recently got planted.

Now forecasted weather reports are coming out saying that the USA has a 60-100% chance of a “Super El Nino” developing between May and July and lasting until the end of the year. In El Nino years, surface water in the eastern Pacific Ocean warms up and this causes extreme weather across the USA. In extreme Super El Nino years, the sea surface temperatures rise 2.5-3.00C or causes about a 4.5-5.40F change in surface water temperature. That is a big change! The last time this happened was 1997-1998. This causes westerly wind bursts and changes the weather.

Super El Nino’s tend to cause world wide weather disruptions. Australia, India, and South Africa tend to have extreme heat and drought. Eastern Africa and South America tend to gets heavy rains and flooding. Globally, Super El Nino’s tend to set record high temperatures.

In the USA, the West and Southwest tend to get extreme heat and drought. The Southern USA gets wetter winters and potentially heavy rains. Hurricanes tend to be suppressed on the Atlantic Coast. In the Northern USA and Canada, we can have variable weather but it depends on the jet stream. Some areas can be hot and dry while below the jet stream it can be wetter than normal. Expect some hot temperatures this summer. We may expect to see conditions similar to last year where it was wetter early but gets really hot and dry in late summer again. Meteorologist say this could be one of the more intense Super El Nino’s ever recorded.

On another note, the New World Screwworm (NWS) has been discovered in cattle in southern Texas. A three-week old calf had NWS found in the umbilical cord. This is a big concern for livestock producers in the USA. NWS migrated in from Mexico and was found in South Texas. Confirmed cases have been identified in calves in Zavala County (near La Pryor, Texas). The Texas Animal Health Commission has declared movement restrictions and established a roughly 12-mile (20-kilometer) quarantine zone in Uvalde and Zavala counties, Texas. Warm-blooded animals cannot leave this zone without an official inspection.

NWS is a flesh-eating parasite with worms laid by the screwworm fly. It was eradicated decades ago but has now reappeared. The NWS fly lays eggs which hatch and start feeding on the flesh of stricken animals. The adult female fly lays eggs in open wounds or around mucous membranes of warm-blooded mammal animals. This includes pets like dogs and cats, sheep, cattle, deer and even humans. Upon hatching, the maggots burrow into living flesh to feed, and can be fatal if left untreated.

This has caused major disruptions to livestock markets. Livestock movement is restricted or at the very least, slowed down due to inspections. Canada has temporarily banned the import of horses, cattle, and other livestock from Texas that were in the state within 21 days of crossing the border.

State and federal agencies are aggressively managing the outbreak using quarantines and the release of sterile flies to halt reproduction. Over 4 million sterile flies are being released weekly to stop the NWS spread. Sterile NWS flies are bred in laboratories and when they mate with viable NWS flies, they produce no offspring, so they lay no eggs. By overwhelming the natural NWS population, viable screwworm NWS larva are greatly reduced and the population declines until they are eradicated. However, the program is expensive and requires a lot of monitoring and treatment until the process is completed. The threat remains until Mexico is cleared too.

Government officials say the U.S. food supply is safe. Screwworms do not infest meat, fruits, vegetables, or other food sources. USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) ensures that the nation’s commercial supply of meat, poultry, and egg products is safe and properly labeled. NWS or screwworm do not tolerate cold winter weather so that limits their expansion Northward. However, farmers and homeowners should be on the alert this summer for livestock and pet open wounds and abnormal lesions. Contact a veterinarian immediately.